Arthur Hayes expects Bitcoin (BTC) to bottom near $40,000 within the next six months, a prediction the BitMEX co-founder made even as his core positions stay heavily long.
Bitcoin changed hands around $62,278 on Tuesday, down about 3% over 24 hours and locked in a range it has held for weeks. A move to Haye’s target would constitute a 35% drawdown below current prices.
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: TradingView
Arthur Hayes Eyes a $40,000 Bitcoin Floor
Hayes laid out the call during an interview with content creator EllioTrades on June 12. He said he holds put spreads as a hedge, while his long-term book stays large and strictly long.
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The $40,000 target would mark a steep retreat, and adds to a run of recent calls from Hayes, including a more bullish year-end Bitcoin target. His willingness to hedge, however, signals caution about the next few months.
“I’m going to stick with it,” Hayes said when asked if his $200,000–$250,000 target still holds with only weeks left in the year. “If I’m wrong it doesn’t matter… I’m long, I’m still happy either way.”
MicroStrategy Buys Help Bitcoin Reclaim $65,000
Bitcoin had recovered earlier in the week, and MicroStrategy’s buying helped it reclaim the $65,000 level. The company added 520 BTC and lifted its cash reserves by $300 million to $1.4 billion. That extended dividend coverage to nearly 10 months.
Analysts at QCP flagged that the buying likely came through a dilutive at-the-market stock program. Even so, investors took comfort in the liquidity rebuild, and the firm’s STRC preferred shares recovered above $90.
BTC will likely require a confluence of positive catalysts to break decisively out of its current range,” the analysts stated.
The accumulation has limits, however. Wintermute said MicroStrategy keeps buying at a slower pace as funding costs rise.
It added that the two largest structural buyers, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and Strategy, now provide less marginal demand…
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