Bitcoin (BTC) is heading for its worst weekly performance since November 2022, down around 15% week-to-date as of Friday.
BTC/USD weekly chart Source: TradingView
BTC was trading near $62,500 after briefly dropping toward $61,000 earlier in the session. The roughly $1,500 rebound showed bulls are still trying to defend the psychologically important $60,000 support level.
How low can Bitcoin go if it breaks below $60,000?
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin is testing its 200-week SMA near $61,800, a level that has historically acted as major cycle support.Analyst says $55,000 may be Bitcoin’s worst-case downside if the 200-week SMA continues to hold.
Bitcoin to $55,000 is the worst-case scenario: Analyst
Bitcoin may print a brief wick below $60,000 before finding stronger demand, according to analyst Radz.
In a Friday post, he said $55,000 could mark the “worst” downside scenario for Bitcoin, citing the 200-week simple moving average (200-day SMA, pink) as the core reason behind his bullish outlook.
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: BarChart/TradingView
That level has historically acted as one of Bitcoin’s strongest long-term support zones. Previous retests of the 200-week moving average in 2019, 2020, 2022 and 2023 either marked major cycle lows that preceded strong recovery phases.
In February 2026, Bitcoin rose by over 37% after testing the 200-week SMA as support too. This week is BTC’s second attempt this year to hold above the pink line, as it treads around $62,000.
Bitcoin bear flag warns of deeper correction toward $50,000
A maturing bear flag on Bitcoin’s chart suggests the correction may extend well below the $55,000 area.
As of Friday, BTC had broken below the flag’s lower trend line, with rising trading volume showing stronger conviction behind the move. In technical analysis, a bear flag forms when the price consolidates higher inside a narrow channel after a sharp decline, before resuming the prior downtrend.
The measured target is calculated by subtracting the height of the preceding decline from the breakdown point. In Bitcoin’s case, that projects a downside target near the $50,000–$51,000 support zone.
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