Key takeaways:
A weakening US dollar and higher government debt favor scarce assets, even as spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and low retail demand spark some concern.Traders expect Kevin Warsh to become Fed Chair, which could benefit Bitcoin.
Bitcoin (BTC) stagnated near $80,000 on Friday following a rejection at $82,500. Traders grew anxious after US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) posted $268 million in net outflows on Thursday.
Meanwhile, $270 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures positions were liquidated within 24 hours, forcing investors to evaluate whether a sustained bear market is finally taking hold.
Bitcoin US-listed spot ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: SoSoValue
The reversal in Bitcoin spot ETF flows on Thursday broke a four-day positive streak. This shift is particularly notable because the S&P 500 Index surged to an all-time high on Friday. There is no evidence of a broad derisking trend across traditional markets, as the US small-cap Russell 2000 Index remains within 2% of its own record peak.
Are Bitcoin retail traders jumping ship?
Underwhelming earnings reports from Coinbase and Robinhood indicated a sharp drop in retail engagement, sparking concerns about Bitcoin’s bull run sustainability. Coinbase recorded a 31% revenue decline compared to the first quarter of 2025, while crypto-related revenue on Robinhood plummeted by 47% over the same period.
Exchanges’ top traders Bitcoin long-to-short ratio. Source: CoinGlass
Top traders at Binance have slashed their Bitcoin longs to the lowest levels in over four weeks. In contrast, whales and market makers at OKX added bullish exposure as the Bitcoin price broke above $80,000 on Tuesday, but they subsequently reduced those positions on Friday.
Overall, the 0.27 long-to-short ratio among top traders at OKX remains a far cry from the 1.20 mark seen just ten days prior.
Weaker US dollar and odds of Strategic Bitcoin Reserves
While Bitcoin derivatives show moderate bearishness, two distinct factors support a sustained bull run. The US dollar has weakened against other major fiat currencies over the past two months. Whether intended by…
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