Bitcoin starts the week with new August highs as traders weigh the impact of crunch US inflation data.
Key points:
US CPI and PPI data comes amid fluctuating bets on Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes in 2026.The Japanese yen remains at the forefront as it creeps back toward the key 160 level against the US dollar.Bitcoin (BTC) traders see the area around $65,800 as crucial for bulls after BTC/USD hits new month-to-date highs.Larger Bitcoin wallets contrast with retail holders after a conspicuous two-month accumulation spree.Baskets of onchain indicators still see the bear market continuing in the second half of the year.
CPI, PPI data comes at crucial time for Fed
Key US inflation data is due as markets shift their expectations of Federal Reserve interest-rate policy.
The July prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) will be released on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.
The timing of the release is important — recent US inflation cues have given mixed signals to Fed watchers, while resolution of the US-Iran war likewise remains far from certain. The latter has implications for CPI in particular, given oil’s price sensitivity to events around the Strait of Hormuz shipping route.
“Crude oil prices remain caught between opposing forces, as markets assess the possibility of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz against Iran’s conditions for reopening the strategic waterway,” Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research company SS WealthStreet, told Reuters on Monday.
CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Last month’s CPI and PPI results both surprised to the downside, with the former seeing its largest monthly decline since April 2020. Nonfarm payrolls numbers last week continued the trend, showing weaker-than-expected labor-market conditions.
Both bolstered odds of a more dovish Fed going forward, with markets switching from a 0.25% rate hike probability to a continued pause as the most likely outcome at its Sept. 16 meeting. CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed a 56% chance of a pause as of Monday.
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