Bitcoin Price Eyes $24K if US Stock Market Crashes 50% or More

Bitcoin (BTC) could tumble by over 60% to under $24,000 in 2026, according to technical analyst Jesse Olson, if the stock market experiences a major crash.

Key takeaways:

A US stock market crash of over 50% may accelerate BTC’s sell-off.Negative Coinbase premium and persistent ETF outflows hint at de-risking among institutional investors.

Bitcoin chart flags $23,980 worst-case downside target

In a Sunday post, Olson shared a two-week Bitcoin chart showing BTC potentially falling toward $23,980, based on a long-term volume-weighted support line from his proprietary Market Sniper Pro VWAP indicator.

BTC/USD two-week price chart. Source: TradingView/Jesse Olson

The yellow line on the chart represents a custom version of anchored volume-weighted average price (aVWAP), a tool traders use to track the average price of an asset, weighted by volume, from a specific starting point.

In Bitcoin’s case, Olson appears to have anchored the line from the 2022 bear market bottom, allowing it to slope forward as a potential long-term support zone.

Olson presented the $23,980 level as his base-case Bitcoin forecast in a severe macro sell-off, wherein the stock market drops by over 50%. The type of stress Olson warns about is already being flagged by veteran market observers.

For instance, GMO co-founder Jeremy Grantham has called the ongoing AI market boom a major speculative bubble. While Michael Burry has compared the current rally to the final stages of the Dot-com mania.

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Economist Gary Shilling has also warned that a US recession is “almost inevitable” by year-end, with stocks at risk of a 20%–30% decline.

BTC often trades like a high-risk asset during market stress. A deep stock-market sell-off could force investors to cut crypto exposure, turning Olson’s $23,980 level into a key downside level to watch.