Key takeaways:
Bitcoin derivatives show weak conviction with 2% futures basis and elevated put options premium signaling caution.Institutional buying via $86 million ETF inflows plus Strategy’s (MSTR US) ongoing accumulation counters market fear.
Bitcoin (BTC) jumped above $67,000 after US President Donald Trump announced a late Sunday ceasefire deal with Iran. Despite this short-term optimism, derivatives metrics show that crypto traders remain highly skeptical, raising concerns that this sudden rally could be a massive bull trap.
Brent crude oil (left) vs. Nasdaq 100 Index (right). Source: TradingView
Crude Brent oil declined to a 100-day low on Monday, while the Nasdaq Index gained 3%. However, Bitcoin traders remained cautious due to the lack of a final deadline and clear operational details for shipping companies following the peace deal with Iran, though an interim agreement is expected this Friday.
Bitcoin 2-month futures basis rate. Source: Laevitas
The Bitcoin futures annualized premium (basis rate) stood at 2% on Monday, signaling a lack of demand for leveraged bullish positions. This indicator has failed to break above the neutral 4% threshold for over 3 months, reflecting Bitcoin’s -24% year-to-date performance. Still, Bitcoin’s 4% daily spike caught short sellers off-guard, triggering $210 million in liquidations.
Bitcoin price is supported by spot ETF inflows and Strategy acquisitions
Part of the bullish sentiment stemmed from the $86 million net inflows into US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) on Friday. While positive, this inflow was not nearly enough to reverse the heavy $730 million in net outflows seen since June 5. ETF activity is widely tracked as a proxy for institutional demand, bulls are likely waiting for stronger confirmation.
Bitcoin 30-day options skew (put-call). Source: Laevitas
The weak conviction among bulls was also evident in the options market, where traders actively avoided protection against downside risk. Bitcoin put (sell) options traded at a 16% premium over call (buy) instruments, flashing a clear warning sign of downside fear. This crypto weakness stood out…
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