Bitcoin (BTC) bulls successfully defended the $60,000 psychological support during last week’s 13% correction.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
However, the rebound has not fully erased downside risks, with some traders warning that a deeper breakdown remains possible as the US–Iran tensions and fading rate-cut expectations weigh on risk appetite.
Several Bitcoin valuation and technical indicators now support that scenario, suggesting BTC could still revisit $50,000 or lower levels in the coming weeks.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin trades near its average production cost of $62,650, but risks dropping toward its lower electrical cost of $50,120.Glassnode’s MVRV bands show BTC below its lower valuation zone, with the next deep-value magnet near $50,437.
Bitcoin breaks down below average production cost
One of the key warning signals comes from the Bitcoin production cost model, which compares BTC’s market price with the estimated average cost of mining one Bitcoin.
The model, shared by Capriole Investments Founder Charles Edwards, shows Bitcoin trading near its production cost of around $62,650. That means miners are, on average, close to breaking even at current prices.
BTC/USD weekly chart vs. production cost. Source: Capriole Investments
This level has historically acted as an important long-term value zone. During previous bear-market corrections, Bitcoin often found strong demand when the price fell into the band between the production cost and the lower electrical cost estimate.
That lower boundary now sits near $50,120, according to the chart.
In other words, BTC is already testing the upper end of a major miner-cost support zone. If sellers push the price decisively below the current production-cost area, the next major valuation floor could sit near the electrical-cost level around $50,000.
BTC realized price indicator reveals $37,500 bottom
Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis of all BTC holders, is currently near $53,600, according to the chart shared by analyst Follis.
Historically, Bitcoin has not formed a major cycle bottom without first trading below the realized price. BTC fell about 58%…
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