Bitcoin (BTC) is currently down 36% from its all-time high at $126,000, but one analyst claims that BTC’s fourth bear market has “materially decoupled” from previous bearish cycles, due to exchange-traded fund (ETF) inflows and corporate BTC accumulation.
Bitcoin ETF flows and treasury buys may limit further downside
Bitcoin Bond Company CEO Pierre Rochard compared Bitcoin’s drawdowns across previous market cycles and said the current correction looks different from the past bear markets. The 2013–2015 cycle wiped out roughly 85% of Bitcoin’s value, while the 2017–2018 and 2021–2022 cycles saw declines of nearly 77% before the price bottomed.
The current dip has been relatively smaller. Bitcoin fell to around $60,000 from its all-time high near $126,000, marking a decline of about 52%.
Bitcoin drawdown analysis across different market cycles by Pierre Rochard. Source: X
Rochard explained that Bitcoin ETFs have become a new source of demand over the past two years. US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of more than $59 billion since launch, including $4.5 billion since March.
Corporate Bitcoin buying has also picked up. Strategy increased its Bitcoin holdings to 818,869 BTC from 640,031 BTC in October 2025, adding nearly 179,000 BTC. The company’s average purchase price is around $75,543.
Strategy BTC holdings. Source: bitcointreasuries.net
According to Rochard, ETF investors and corporate treasury firms are now providing consistent demand that did not exist during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.
MN Capital founder Michaël van de Poppe agreed that the current market environment no longer resembles the 2022 cycle. Van de Poppe said,
“The most overcrowded thesis right now is that Bitcoin makes a bear flag and that we’re going to bottom out in October ’26.”
Van de Poppe pointed to several factors that make this cycle different, including fresh Nasdaq highs at 29,372 on Monday, the upcoming legislative vote on the CLARITY Act, discussions around a strategic Bitcoin reserve, and the appointment of a new Federal Reserve chair.
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