Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed roughly 40% from its February lows, bringing the price back to a critical resistance zone that could determine whether the bear market continues or finally ends.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin fell 2.25% to around $80,500 after failing once again to break above its 200-day EMA resistance.Previous rejections from the same technical level triggered Bitcoin declines of 25% and 36%.
Bitcoin bulls must decisively break key trend line
As of Monday, BTC/USD was down 2.25% near $80,500, erasing its overnight gains as buyers once again failed to clear the 200-day exponential moving average (200-day EMA, blue line).
The level has capped Bitcoin’s rebound attempts since November 2025. Each rejection from the 200-day EMA has preceded steep drawdowns of 25% and 36%, respectively, putting the average decline near 30%.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
In his Monday post, analyst Brett said breaking above the 200-day EMA, currently near $82,580, could be “the end of the bears.” But given Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback, the prospects of BTC falling further in the coming sessions appear higher.
BTC’s price could fall toward $56,600 from current levels if it repeats its average 30% drawdown from the 200-day EMA rejection zone.
BTC price “lifetime support” model shows $56,000 floor
The $56,600 level aligns closely with Bitcoin’s broader macro support range.
A new Bitcoin Lifetime Support Model, highlighted by analyst PlanC, places BTC’s long-term upper support band near $57,110. The lower support was roughly around the $46,760 level.
Bitcoin lifetime support model. Source: Coin Metrics/PlanC
The model averages Bitcoin’s lifetime simple moving average with its single-, double-, triple- and quadruple-EMAs, then plots a 10% band around the result.
Historically, similar lifetime support zones have acted as macro bear-market floors. That means Bitcoin’s immediate setup remains bearish, but a decline toward the mid-$50,000s would still place BTC near a major long-term support area.
Bitcoin’s still unresolved bear flag pattern also hints at a potential drop below $60,000 in the coming weeks, as shown below.
BTC/USD…
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