Bitcoin’s (BTC) relief rally to $82,000 appears to be cooling off, and analysts say key levels must be reclaimed for BTC price to “confirm a durable continuation higher.”
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin must break resistance at $85,000-$88,000 to confirm that the bottom is in.Profit-taking on rallies must cool down for a sustained breakout in BTC price.
Bitcoin must reclaim $88,000 as support
Bitcoin’s 7% climb over the last week to $81,000 saw it reclaim key levels, including the true market mean at $78,200 and short-term holder (STH) cost basis at $79,100.
If the price sustains above these two levels, the 50% drawdown from the $126,000 all-time high to sub-$60,000 levels in February “would rank among the shortest episodes of its kind in Bitcoin market history,” Glassnode said in its latest Week Onchain newsletter, adding:
“Attention now shifts to the next major resistance at the Active Realized Price near $85.2K, which tracks the cost basis of all non-dormant supply and represents the next structural threshold the market must reckon with.”
Bitcoin risk indicator. Source: Glassnode
The last time Bitcoin reclaimed its active realized price, in October 2023, it was followed by a 170% rally to its previous all-time high of $74,000 reached in March 2024. These gains increased to 365% once the price hit its current record highs above $126,000.
Related: Bitcoin Bollinger Bands push key breakout as creator acts on ‘positive’ signal
Bitcoin’s realized price by age cohorts reveals other major levels of resistance sitting higher up: the realized price of the three-to-six-month investor cohort at $88,880, the 12-month-18-month cost basis at $93,450 and the average purchase price of the six-to-12-month investor cohort at $111,850.
“For the bottom to be confirmed, price needs to clear $88.88K and hold – not wick through, not retest and fail,” CryptoQuant analyst IT Tech said in a Thursday Quicktake note, adding:
“Until then, every rally into $85K-$88K is walking straight into distribution from November 2025-Feb 2026, buyers desperate to get out flat.”
Bitcoin realized price – UTXO age bands. Source: CryptoQuant
A…
..
