History, mixed with some analysis, hints that the tech stock rebound from its recent lows may only be getting started.
The Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) entered Monday’s session on a 13-day win streak. According to veteran strategist and Trivariate Research founder Adam Parker, this has happened six times since 1989.
In four out of the six periods, tech performed well after notching such a hot 13-session run, averaging a three-month forward return of 5.4%. The best performance came around the COVID-19 pandemic in April 2020, as seen below.
It’s still a tech stock world. · Trivariate Research
“Our view looking at this is that we should be more bullish on the technology sector, evaluating the history of the strong earnings growth forecasts and the sharp market trading reversal,” Parker said.
But the reason to stay bullish on tech stocks isn’t just a function of statistical quirks. The reality is that the ongoing AI boom will help drive strong earnings growth for everyone from chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA) to AWS owner Amazon (AMZN).
The sector’s 24-month forward earnings growth is “too high for technology [stocks] to underperform,” Parker contended.
“While we continue to think that this year is one where the market is not likely to appreciate more than 10%, owing to concerns about the median company’s ability to have expanding gross margins, we are of the mindset that the absolute growth of the technology sector earnings will likely remain robust enough to fuel outperformance from here, even if cyclical concerns about overbuilding exist,” Parker said.
He said Nvidia in particular can continue to grow “well above” the overall market earnings growth rate for the “foreseeable future.”
Investors appear to be rallying again around the notion that this is a tech-or-bust market. They have pivoted aggressively from defensive oil and gold positions back into the AI supercycle trades, bolstered by Taiwan Semiconductor’s (TSM) strong earnings and a stronger outlook for AI demand last week.
The report proved that the sector’s fundamental growth…
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