New BTC price analysis predicted that the bear market would bottom out later in the year, before beginning a “two-year accumulation phase.”
Bitcoin (BTC) should find a floor near $55,000 in the second half of 2026, a new prediction says.
Key points:
Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-score metric still needs to match old bear-market bottoms to signal trend change, says CryptoQuant.
That should result in a trip to $55,000 in late 2026 before a market rebound.
Going forward, the next cycle top is expected in the second half of 2029.
Bitcoin MVRV Z-score gives new $55,000 target
In one of its “Quicktake” blog posts on Friday, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant set out the timeline for Bitcoin’s next “iron bottom.”
“Bear market bottoming is a marathon of exhaustion,” contributor Sunny Mom wrote.
“While data suggests we are halfway through, a final ‘wash-out’ is likely still ahead. As the saying goes: history may not repeat itself, but it often rhymes.”
CryptoQuant flagged three onchain indicators to support the theory that the next bear-market bottom is still ahead. Among them is the market value to realized value (MVRV) Z-score.
MVRV measures the price at which the BTC supply last moved, also known as its realized cap, versus the value of all BTC in existence (its market cap). The Z-score divides the resulting ratio by the standard deviation of market cap, giving clear “overvalued” and “undervalued” ranges for Bitcoin at a certain price point.
“This valuation metric is cooling but has yet to enter the negative/undervalued zone,” the analysis noted.
“Every ‘iron bottom’ in history has seen this score dip below zero; currently, the market is merely cooling, not despairing.”Bitcoin MVRV Z-score data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
The last time that the MVRV Z-score dipped below zero was during the bottoming phase of Bitcoin’s last bear market in 2022. Sunny Mom sees history “rhyming” between October and December this year.
“Target: $55K – $60K, coinciding with a sub-zero MVRV Z-Score,” they concluded.
Bottom to precede “two-year accumulation phase”
In January, Cointelegraph…
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