US investment manager Ark Invest claims that the lion’s share of the Bitcoin supply is already safe from the quantum computing breakthrough, leaving ample warning signals for builders to quantum-proof the rest of the supply.
Around 65.4% of the Bitcoin (BTC) supply is not vulnerable to the threat of a quantum computing breakthrough, but about 34.6% of the BTC supply remains at risk, according to a Wednesday white paper published by Ark Invest and Bitcoin-focused financial services company Unchained.
This includes around 5 million BTC, or 25% of the total supply, assumed migratable due to address re-use, and 1.7 million BTC, or 8.6% of the supply, assumed lost in P2PK (Pay-to- Public-Key) addresses, the earliest form of transaction script on the Bitcoin blockchain, which locked funds directly to public keys. Another 200,000 BTC (around 1%) is assumed to be migratable due to the address type P2TR (Pay-to-Taproot).
This supply would be vulnerable to quantum theft if quantum computers can break Bitcoin’s elliptic curve cryptography (ECC), which would require about 2,330 logical qubits and tens of millions to billions of quantum gates, the report argued.
“Even so, their practical feasibility would require quantum systems to reach performance levels that our research suggests will take much time to achieve.”Source: Ark Invest, David Puell
The paper’s estimates are far broader than those in a February CoinShares analysis, which said the realistically market-relevant portion of quantum-vulnerable Bitcoin was about 10,200 BTC, or roughly 0.05% of supply, even though legacy P2PK addresses account for a much larger theoretical exposure.
Separately, the first quantum computer facility with one million physical qubits (the equivalent of tens of billions of typical computers) is expected to be finished in 2027 by Chicago-based PsiQuantum, which raised $1 billion from BlackRock-linked funds.
Quantum breakthrough remains “long-term risk” for Bitcoin
Ark’s white paper argues that quantum risks will evolve over an extended period with “many intermediate warning signals” rather than an abrupt single point of…
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