Bitcoin (BTC) failed to break the $72,000 resistance on Tuesday, as onchain data suggested that BTC was entering the most “challenging” phase of the cycle.
Key takeaways:
Bitcoin price stays range-bound following another rejection at $72,000.
Rising supply in loss suggests the most “psychologically challenging” phase of the bear market is here.
Bitcoin must break resistance at $72,000 for a chance to end the downtrend.
Bitcoin faces the most frustrating phase of the cycle
Bitcoin is entering a period of “elevated uncertainty” where market participants display more hesitation than conviction, according to CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_.
“A combination of 3 key onchain metrics suggests that the market may be navigating one of the most psychologically challenging phases of the cycle,” MorenoDV_ said.
Related: Arthur Hayes says he’s waiting to buy Bitcoin until Fed eases policy
These include the Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator, a metric that tracks phases of investor sentiment in the BTC market, which shows a bear market consolidation phase following the aggressive drawdown from cycle highs.
This is “a period that historically tends to frustrate both bulls and bears,” the analyst said.
Bitcoin bull-bear market cycle indicator vs. apparent demand. Source: CryptoQuant
The apparent demand further reinforces this picture. The chart above reveals that the spike in Bitcoin’s apparent demand in mid-February was short-lived, “with demand quickly slipping back into negative territory,” MorenoDV_ said.
The lack of sustained buying pressure indicates that market participants remain cautious and unwilling to aggressively accumulate at current levels.
Moreover, the Long-Term Holder SOPR is now below the key threshold of 1, a sign that even long-term investors are realizing losses.
“Historically, this phase tends to emerge in the later stages of bear markets, when prolonged uncertainty begins to erode even the strongest conviction. ”Bitcoin: Long-term holder SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
Meanwhile, Bitcoin supply in loss is rising again, currently approaching the 40–45% range, up from 22% in…
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