Key takeaways:
Oil price spikes often precede 20% spikes in Bitcoin value, though initial market reactions remain volatile and unpredictable.
Bitcoin currently mirrors tech stocks with an 81% Nasdaq 100 correlation, making it less sensitive to oil prices.
Oil prices surged to $101 per barrel on Sunday, marking a 55% increase in ten days—the largest move in history. The event caused the SPX to reach its lowest level in 10 weeks on Friday. Bitcoin (BTC) saw an initial positive reaction with prices jumping 16% between Feb. 28 and Wednesday, though it eventually erased the entire move by Sunday.
Traders now question whether Bitcoin price could suffer from the uncertainty brought by the US-Israel war with Iran. Persistently high oil prices could trigger inflation and hurt consumer spending while the US job market remains weak. Bitcoin price has benefited from sudden jumps in oil prices in the past, but the gains usually happen over a four-week period.
WTI oil (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (green) in May-August 2025. Source: TradingView
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices surged by 15% in a week starting on June 11, 2025, after global agencies assessed that Iran had enriched uranium nuclear warheads and Israel launched air strikes in the region two days later. Initially, Bitcoin price declined by 8% to $101,000 from $110,300, but it ended up reverting the move and posted 10% gains in four weeks.
WTI oil (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (green) in March-May 2024. Source: TradingView
On March 27, 2023, WTI prices jumped by 16% in eight days, fueled by a legal dispute leading to 450,000 barrels per day in exports from Kurdistan and a surprise production cut from OPEC. Bitcoin price gained 12% in two weeks but failed to sustain the bullish momentum, returning to the initial $28,000 level in less than a month.
WTI oil (blue) vs. Bitcoin/USD (green) in Feb-April 2022. Source: TradingView
A 29% weekly rally in WTI oil prices initiated on Feb. 28, 2022, following the full-scale military invasion of Ukraine by Russia, triggered global sanctions on Russian oil exports. Bitcoin prices jumped 17% over the initial two days, but those gains…
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