Smart investors adjust their strategy during bear markets and 50% drawdowns like the one seen in Bitcoin (BTC) over the last five months. The strategy, known as dollar-cost averaging (DCA), involves investing the same amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions.
Historical market cycle data and forward-looking BTC price simulations provide a clearer view of how these steady investment patterns develop across different entry periods and time horizons.
A five-year Bitcoin DCA stack shows strong net gains
A $250 weekly Bitcoin purchase starting in January 2021 resulted in $67,500 invested over a five-year period. Based on DCA simulation data, the strategy accumulated 1.65097905 BTC at an average purchase price of $40,884.
At the current Bitcoin price near $71,000, that 1.65097905 BTC is valued at roughly $120,518, representing a $53,018 gain (76%) on the invested capital. When Bitcoin traded for $100,000, the holdings were worth about $165,098, while at the cycle peak near $126,000 in October 2025, the same amount reached $208,023.
Bitcoin DCA cycle 2021-2026. Source: Newhedge
A shorter accumulation window illustrates how entry timing changes the early outcome while the strategy continues building exposure. A $250 weekly DCA beginning January 2024 results in $28,500 invested, accumulating 0.36863166 BTC with an average purchase price of $77,312.
At the current price of $71000, the amount is valued at about $26,909, a –6% unrealized loss. At $100,000, the holdings had risen to $36,863, while a $126,000 cycle high valued the Bitcoin at $46,448.
In a February X post, Swan Bitcoin analyst Adam Livingston compared a similar DCA approach against equities over the past five years. A $100 weekly allocation produced $42,508 in Bitcoin versus $37,470 in S&P 500 (SPX), representing 62.9% and 43.6% returns, respectively.
Livingston noted that purchasing Bitcoin consistently during drawdowns has historically produced stronger cumulative returns despite the price volatility.
$100 DCA cycle into BTC and SPX. Source: Adam Livingston/X
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