You probably think of Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) as the free stock trading app, or maybe the crypto one. That’s not really the story anymore. The fastest-growing part of the business right now is prediction markets, something almost nobody was talking about a couple years ago.
Event contracts brought in $156 million in FQ2 2026, more than equities trading and more than crypto. Bernstein took notice and raised its price target from $130 to $160. The real question isn’t whether this quarter was good. It’s whether this new business sticks around once the headlines that fueled it move on.
UBS Lowers its Price Target on Moelis & Company (MC) to $59 from $74 and Maintains a Neutral Rating
Bernstein Sees Double Digit Growth Potential
Event contract revenue went from roughly $10 million in the second quarter of 2025 to $156 million a year later. That’s a huge jump, and it’s already 20% of transaction revenue, trailing only options. Bernstein thinks this segment alone could grow 64% a year for the next few years.
The rest of the business isn’t just riding on that one story either. Equities trading revenue jumped 95% year over year while the S&P 500 gained 15% in the same stretch, and the overall quarter beat Wall Street’s numbers outright. Earnings came in at $0.62 a share on $1.31 billion in revenue. Strip out a one-time accounting benefit worth 14 cents a share, and adjusted earnings of $0.48 still beat the $0.43 analysts expected.
Robinhood Gold added 1.5 million members, up 39%, and the company keeps layering on credit cards and banking features to look less like a trading app and more like a full financial home base. Management even lowered its expense guidance, and said the savings came from new efficiencies, not belt-tightening, with some of that money going toward newer bets like Rothera and WonderFi.
The Crypto Business Has Gone Cold
Now the part that’s harder to spin. Crypto trading revenue fell 38% year over year and 25% from the prior quarter, and it’s sitting at less than 30% of…
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