Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $63,000 mark on Thursday, but traders fear a correction ahead of Friday’s $1.4 billion options expiry on Deribit. The concerns stem from the US government bond yield climbing toward a level that many view as a warning sign. Is the $62,000 support level at risk?
Key takeaways:
Rising US Treasury yields signal debt concerns, negatively pressuring risk assets.Balanced Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes suggest limited downside from the $62,000 level.
US 10-year Treasury yield (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin ETF outflows are not a concern ahead of the Bitcoin options expiry
The 10-year Treasury yield’s approach to 4.6% signals investor anxiety over the expansion of US government debt and prospects for further monetary policy expansion to avert an economic recession. Bitcoin has felt the impact, trading sideways while the Nasdaq-100 Index sits merely 4% below its all-time high.
The AI sector’s bullish momentum keeps pulling capital toward equities. Asian chipmaker SK Hynix oversubscribed IPO in the US helped push the sector higher on Thursday, led by Arm Holdings (ARM) 10% gains, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) 7% rally and Micron’s 7% intraday gains.
Wednesday brought $85 million in net outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs, ending a short three-day inflow run. Still, the figure does not confirm a reversal in institutional flows. More importantly, demand for Bitcoin options has stayed balanced between calls (buy) and puts (sell).
Bitcoin options put-to-call volumes ratio at Deribit. Source: Laevitas
Call options volume has outpaced put instruments over the past four days, reflecting reduced demand for downside movements. However, the upcoming weekly options expiry features an interesting setup as calls up to $62,500 total $137 million, while puts above $61,000 are at $121 million.
Deribit BTC options open interest for July 10, BTC. Source: Deribit
Bitcoin bulls would gain significant ground with a move above $63,500 by the 8:00 AM UTC expiry on Friday, boosting their advantage to $190 million. Bears hold a smaller $100 million edge below $61,000, limiting their incentive…
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