Bitcoin (BTC) treads water around $64,000 to start the week, but market participants see plenty of catalysts coming.
Key points:
The US dollar is on the rebound, and history shows that Bitcoin rarely enjoys a strong DXY.July often does the opposite of June, and this forms the case for BTC price relief next.PCE inflation data is due out against a backdrop of uncertain US-Iran peace.Bitcoin’s relationship to oil prices is boosting the odds of $60,000 support holding.Short-term holders may have sold off, but whales are not interested in “capitulation” at current prices.
Bitcoin traders eye new US dollar challenge
A familiar headwind for Bitcoin price action is back in focus this week amid ongoing efforts to end the US-Iran war.
The US dollar index (DXY) is back above 100, and has hit its highest levels in over a year, per data from TradingView.
BTC/USD vs. US dollar index (DXY) four-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
DXY, which measures dollar strength against a basket of US trading-partner currencies, is typically inversely correlated with crypto markets. Ongoing strength in the index thus poses a threat to broader upside in crypto and risk assets.
“Breaking the big 100 level while being supported by its Daily 200MA/EMA,” trader Daan Crypto Trades summarized in a post on X over the weekend, referring to the 200-day simple (SMA) and exponential (EMA) moving averages.
“If this ends up holding above 100, it would put some pressure on risk assets. So it’s good to watch.”
US dollar index (DXY) one-day chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X
Trader Benjamin Cowen saw an ongoing DXY “bull case” into the latter half of 2026.
US dollar index (DXY) one-week chart. Source: Benjamin Cowen/X
“$DXY is currently testing the upper range of a megaphone aka broadening wedge pattern. If it breaks above this pattern instead of rejecting then that would be a pretty big upward target– somewhere around 106,” ColinTalksCrypto, creator of the YouTube channel of the same name, added.
“It would be bad for risk assets as well.”
US dollar index (DXY) chart. Source: ColinTalksCrypto/X
Trader Aksel Kibar expected an…
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