Bitcoin (BTC) rose above $63,000 on Friday as markets adjusted to geopolitical and macro changes.
Key points:
Bitcoin takes a time-out near week-to-date lows after a broadly hawkish Fed interest-rate meeting.US-Iran tensions slowly resurface with the Strait of Hormuz oil route in the firing line.A trader suggests that a “black swan” event could still come in this Bitcoin bear market.
BTC price lack upside momentum after hawkish Fed cues
Data from TradingView showed BTC/USD locked in a tight trading range on low time frames after dropping to eight-day lows.
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Weakness had entered after the US Federal Reserve’s latest interest-rate decision, which sparked a broader risk-asset comedown.
Wednesday’s meeting on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) was the first for new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, who avoided giving traders dovish signals on future policy.
“Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy,” he said in a statement after a unanimous board decision to keep rates at current levels.
“The Committee will deliver price stability.”
Warsh’s tone was unusual, as expectations had seen him being accommodating to US President Donald Trump’s insistence on rate cuts. He also cut the FOMC statement length considerably, using drier language than former chair, Jerome Powell.
“We will have far less information going forward,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter reacted in a post on X, noting that Warsh had also “dropped” its forward guidance.
“He even hinted that the ‘dot plot’ could be changed or eliminated along with all forms of Fed communication, such as the policy statement and press conferences. In other words, the market will now have less Fed outlook which means more uncertainty.”
Fed target rate probabilities for July 29 FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed markets pricing in a near 40% chance of a rate hike at the next FOMC meeting in late…
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