Bitcoin’s sustained bullish market structure over the past three weeks has triggered a clear risk landscape signal that could hint at an extension of the ongoing rally.
The Risk Index—Glassnode’s proprietary metric that quantifies systemic risk on a scale of 0 to 100—is hovering at zero, the lowest possible level, indicating a “cleared risk landscape,” according to a Thursday Telegram post from the market intelligence firm. It also serves as a primary gauge of market health, with a 25 threshold that distinguishes between low- and high-risk regimes.
The Moderate Strategy, which captures upside momentum and exits when conviction fades, has flipped from “Moderate” to “High Confidence.”
The alignment of these models signals a bullish regime, analysts told Decrypt, underscored by sustained inflows into Bitcoin ETPs and aggressive demand from spot buyers.
“This is an excellent window for strategic accumulation rather than chasing deeper dips,” Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told Decrypt. Zhang added that the firm maintains, “a strong conviction for a positive close to 2026, supported by improving market structure and institutional conviction that should drive Bitcoin to a new all-time high.”
“As the US-Iran conflict subsides, bullish bets will continue to propel the market upward in the near term,” Jeff Mei, COO of BTSE, told Decrypt.
As a result, Bitcoin hit $79,388 on Wednesday, its highest level in over three months.
Investor sentiment has also seen considerable improvement, resulting in the Fear and Greed Index jumping from “extreme fear” at the start of April to “fear.” Likewise, users on prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, see a 74% chance that Bitcoin extends its rally toward $84,000 next,up from lows of 62% at the start of the week.
A similar outlook can be seen with Ethereum, with users assigning a 54% chance that the second-largest crypto by market cap pumps to $3,000 next.
“Breaking and holding above $80K would act as a major technical and psychological catalyst, clearing the path for…
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