Key takeaways:
Private credit risks and weak US jobs market data drive Bitcoin lower, but is there a silver lining?
Institutional Bitcoin ETF outflows and miner sales test BTC’s strength, but the Federal Reserve’s options for addressing the federal deficit may also favor scarce assets.
Bitcoin (BTC) faced rejection at $69,000 on Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s speech failed to guarantee an end to the war in Iran. Oil prices soared following the speech and beyond traders’ war-related worries, tumult in the private credit markets is also taking a toll on investor confidence across multiple markets.
While Bitcoin has successfully defended the $66,000 level throughout the week, traders remain concerned about downside risk over the upcoming weekend, as US and European markets will be closed on Friday for Easter.
Crude WTI oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
The threat of additional US-led military action in Iran caused WTI crude oil prices to rally above $110, triggering a move away from risky assets. Traders chose to cut their exposure to Bitcoin and stocks as the US Treasury Department expressed concerns regarding the $2 trillion private credit markets on Wednesday. Domestic and international insurance regulators will be surveyed through early May.
Private credit markets sound the alarm: Will BTC respond?
Blue Owl, a $307 billion alternative asset manager, announced “extraordinary redemption requests” for two of its private credit funds in shareholder letters issued Thursday. Over 70% of the companies Blue Owl lends to are in the software industry, as reported during a quarterly earnings call. The fund manager capped withdrawal requests at 5%, adding fresh concerns to the credit market.
Adding to the short-term bearish sentiment among traders was a surge in US continuing jobless claims, which rose to 1.84 million for the week ending March 21, up from 1.82 million the week prior. This data is not inherently negative for equities; however, as the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted, most layoffs originated from companies “shifting budgets toward AI investments at the…
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